The Bitcoin price continues to consolidate within the trading range between $27,800 and $30,000. Even though the buy side currently seems to have lost momentum and the bears feel in control, there are numerous good arguments why the Bitcoin price will write new yearly highs in the short and medium term.
4-Hour Chart Of Bitcoin
A look at the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows that the price has been writing higher lows since the price reached a low of $27,000 on April 24. A higher low occurs when the price hits a new low that is higher than the previous low, without a lower low preceding it.
Thus, the current price movement of BTC indicates an uptrend. The $30,000 level should be the next target as long as BTC stays above $28,800.
US Banking Crisis
Another driver for the Bitcoin price in the short and medium term can be the ongoing US banking crisis. The last few weeks have shown that BTC has reacted strongly to the news, and for the most part has seen a rise. Ultimately, BTC was created for this very purpose: an escape from the fractional reserve banking system.
Because of this, it is also not surprising that BTC has seen its highest correlation with gold in two years. Physical gold has written new all-time highs in recent days, Bitcoin could be spurred by this.
The lead economist at $646 billion asset manager AllianceBernstein, Jared Bernstein, recently acknowledged that Bitcoin will establish itself as an alternative financial system in times of bank failure, and urged people to buy Bitcoin.
Bernstein predicted that the U.S. banking crisis is “far from over,” adding, “We believe Bitcoin will emerge again as a faster horse than gold.”
FED’s Interest Rate Pause In June?
Even though the financial markets initially gave a bearish reaction to the FOMC press conference on Wednesday, the market does not believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again in June. Effectively, the market is expecting a pivot, meaning an initial pause in rate hikes on June 14.
The CME’s FedWatch tool shows that an overwhelming majority of 99.1% currently expect a pause in interest rates in June. More than 85% expect the first rate cut as early as September and at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.
And even JP Morgan’s Davis believes that “this is definitely the end of the rate hike cycle for the Fed” and a Fed pivot could come “as early as September.” Due to the credit crunch and banking woes, the Fed will be forced to pump liquidity into the market prematurely, BTC will benefit greatly.
Bitcoin Will Rise If History Repeats Itself
As the analysts at Rekt Capital write, the Bitcoin price is currently in a similar consolidation phase as it was in 2019. If history repeats itself, BTC is yet to see its biggest gains in the coming months.
#BTC 2019 vs 2023
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 5, 2023