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In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily crypto technical analysis videos, we are examining past Bitcoin bear markets to see how much further we could have before a bottom is in.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 9, 2022
Bitcoin price continues to set new low after low now that support has been decisively broken.
Expanded Flat Corrective Pattern Fills Out Further
The market is clearly bearish, but on the brighter side we have what could be the final wave in an expanded flat pattern. The push to new lows continues to fill out what could be a large falling wedge pattern. But considering the price action and sentiment out there, it is challenging to consider any bullish thesis.
Bitcoin price is now at the 0.5 retracement using Fibonacci on log settings. But that isn’t very reassuring. Given the expectations for the $14K and $13K area, either Bitcoin price action stops short of that level, or slices right through it.
Has the corrective pattern completed? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bear Market Worst-Case Scenario
In these next charts, the worst case scenario would involve filling a BTC CME gap at under $10,000. Not only is there confluence there with diagonal uptrend support, but that is roughly 85% retracement from the peak.
This is notable, because during the 2018 bear market, BTC fell by 84%, and in the 2015 bear market it dropped 86%. If you average out those two samples, you get an 85% retracement on average.
Much like the top cryptocurrency peaked well below the ROI levels of past bull runs, bear markets won’t see as much of a decline either. The idea is that Bitcoin volatility is disappearing over time.
BTC Futures gap presents worst-case scenario | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
When Will BTC Put In a Bottom?
On the topic of time, time is most certainly a factor in bear markets. The 2018 bear market took roughly 12 months to reach a bottom, or the same amount of time since the second peak of the BTC double top through now.
The 2015 bear market took 14 months to find a bottom. If we count the first peak in Bitcoin, the bear market has been the longest ever at 19 months before reaching a bottom.
How much longer can the bear market last? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.co