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The Bitcoin price is holding on at its current levels with bullish momentum fading on lower timeframes. The crypto market’s recent sideways price actions seem related to the upcoming macroeconomic events and their potential influence across global markets.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price trades at $20,500 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours and a 6% profit over the previous week. Other cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market capitalization are displaying strength as BTC moves sideways, with Dogecoin (DOGE) leading, followed by Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview
The Bitcoin Price In The Short Term, Risk Of Spike In Volatility
The Bitcoin price is under heavy influence from macroeconomic forces. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is trying to mitigate inflation by tightening its monetary policy, hiking interest rates, and reducing global liquidity.
Consequently, Bitcoin and risk-on assets have trended to the downside for 2022. In October, BTC showed a higher correlation with traditional assets due to increased economic uncertainty.
Per a recent report by Arcane Research, this status quo is likely to continue. The research firm believes that the Bitcoin price mid-term will still suffer from a high correlation to macroeconomic forces.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is facing enormous pressure to pivot its monetary policy from internal and external agents in the United States. If Powell gives in, the Bitcoin price will likely benefit and extend its bullish momentum.
However, Arcane Research believes it is more probable that Powell stays in its current course, preparing markets for further interest rate hikes. The financial institution and its leadership want to lower inflation in the U.S. dollar regardless of the fallout in global markets.
During tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Powell might offer more clues. The market expects further hikes, but any sign of dovishness could trigger another upside move.
Bitcoin Market Susceptible To Squeezes
In that sense, Arcane Research records two factors that might contribute to a possible uptrend. The first is high leverage across the crypto market.
Short positions continue to pile up as the Bitcoin price trends to the upside. These positions are fuel for BTC if the market takes the long route.
In addition, tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will likely trigger volatility which might lead Bitcoin to squeeze out these short positions and reclaim previously lost territory. As Arcane Research noted, volatility during these events is historically high.
Source: Arcane Research
However, the same is true for the short side of this trade. If the market overreacts to further tightening, expecting the Fed to come out dovish, the cryptocurrency could suffer and revisit the bottom of its range at $18,600. Arcane Research noted:
Prepare for shaky markets in early November, as the event calendar is enormously busy in the first half of the month. Tomorrow comes the first.