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Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range with low volatility between the high area north of $19,000 and $20,000. The cryptocurrency is moving about critical support, but macroeconomic factors threaten to push it into previous lows.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $19,700 with a 1% and 8% loss in the last 24 hours and 7 days, respectively. The cryptocurrency’s performance has been affecting the entire sector as Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and another retrace to early August levels.
BTC’s price moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview
At these low volatile levels, the battle between bulls and bears seems more evident. Bitcoin was able to close its August monthly candle about critical support which could contribute to a potential relief.
However, the U.S. dollar presents a potential short-term hurdle for risk-on assets. Data from a crypto analyst indicates that the currency broke about an important resistance and might make a fresh run into levels last seen in 2003.
As seen below, the U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY Index, breach the resistance at 109 and could move into a multi-year high of 111 before re-testing previous levels. This breakout must be confirmed by a daily candle close but seems likely to extend as the dollar consolidated below resistance before running higher.
According to crypto analyst Justin Bennett, this U.S. dollar rally poses a risk for digital assets:
The argument against a rally for risk assets is the $DXY, which is breaking above 109.30 today. Need the dollar to cool off for crypto to rally. Remember, though, that the daily close is what matters. Everything in between is noise.
DXY Index rallying on the daily chart. Source: Justin Bennett via Twitter
The U.S. dollar has been a constant obstacle for risk-on assets, such as Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is displaying a negative correlation with the currency as investors flee into it to protect themselves from financial uncertainty.
Bitcoin And Equities On The Ropes
In that sense, traditional equities, positively correlated with Bitcoin and crypto, have been re-testing local support over today’s trading session. The S&P 500 is testing the 3,900-support presenting a falling wedge pattern that Bennett believes could provide room for crypto and stock relief bounce.
The expert expects a spike in volatility, a potential decompression from this week’s slow price action, as the U.S. will publish its Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). As NewsBTC reported yesterday, this metric and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will dictate a lot of the upcoming Fed decisions.
If the NFP misses market expectations, as analysis from trading firm QCP Capital suggests, the U.S. financial institution might be able to hint at a less aggressive monetary policy. This could support further bullish momentum for Bitcoin and the crypto market.
S&P 500 crashing into support on the daily chart. Source: Justin Bennett via Twitter