Quant Explains Why Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Only In Phase 1

Quant Explains Why Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Only In Phase 1

Top Quant uses the puell multiple to point out a pattern that explains why the current Bitcoin bull cycle is only in the first phase.

The Bull Market Is Not Over, Phase 1 Has Just Begun

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, past cycles show that the current Bitcoin bull market isn’t over yet. The puell multiple seems to reveal where the price might head next.

The puell multiple is a BTC indicator used to tell how healthy miners’ revenue is. It’s calculated by dividing the mining revenue by the 365-day moving average (MA) of the same.

Puell Multiple= Mining Revenue USD ÷ 365 MA​ (Mining Revenue USD​)​

With the help of the metric, it becomes possible to say how much selling pressure miners are facing. When the indicator has high values, miner revenue is relatively healthy, thus miners aren’t compelled to sell. While low values could suggest they are facing considerable selling pressure.

Since miners hold large amounts of Bitcoin, significant selling pressure among them could impact the price of the cryptocurrency on a visible scale.

Now, here is how the puell multiple changed during the 2011 and 2013 bull cycles:

The Puell Multiple vs the Bitcoin price during 2011 and 2013

The above graph numbers the different phases of these runs, and the colored zones help reveal the pattern of where the price heads next after touching each.

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During a mid-cycle top, the price touches the yellow box. An end-of-cycle top is signaled when the value touches the red zone.

A new cycle doesn’t start until after a mid-cycle top post halving is reached. The below chart shows how the 2017 bull run looked like as well as how the current one may end up looking like:

The current Bitcoin bull run has just begun

Examining this graph makes it clear that the 2017 cycle also followed a similar pattern for the price vs puell multiple chart.

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Now, based on this pattern, it looks like the current bull run may only be in the first phase. If a similar trend continues to be followed, BTC should make a large move up next as the coin hits a new ATH.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, BTC’s price floats around $47.8k, down 1.5% in the last 7 days. Over the past month, the coin has accumulated 15% in gains.

Here is a chart for the trend in Bitcoin’s value over the past three months:

BTC continues on an overall downtrend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from CryptoQuant, TradingView.com