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Stuck right below its 2017 all-time high, Bitcoin is moving sideways with low volatility over the past few days. The crypto market is preparing to close another monthly candle in the coming days. This event is set to move BTC and other cryptocurrencies, but in what direction?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $19,000 with 0.4% profit and a 2% loss in the last 24 hours and 7-days, respectively. The benchmark cryptocurrency has been one of the worst performing assets in the top 10 by market cap as XRP (+30%) and Solana (+7%) take the lead.
BTC’s price moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview
Bitcoin Option Expiry Will Bring Volatility To The Market
The current status quo in the market might be coming to a decision as this monthly candle close will coincide with the expiration of over 100,000 BTC in option contracts. This event often brings volatility to the market as big players push to move the price closer to their strike price.
Data from Coinglass indicates that there is over $5 billion in open interest for Bitcoin options, as big players unwind their positions and shift them, the cryptocurrency is likely to see more action. According to the team behind KingFisher, a platform to view data on crypto derivatives, the more likely scenario is to the upside.
In the short term, as monthly close, and options expiry kick in, the price of Bitcoin could quickly trend towards $20,000. Volatility might be fueled by a spike in short positions opened as BTC trended sideways at its current levels.
If bulls can push Bitcoin to the upside, taking out these short positions, the price action might be more violent and fuel a longer relief rally. The team behind King Fisher commented the following:
Probably some vanna hedging activity related to end of the month
We could see a jump to 19.8k in a matter of hours
TWAP Long ended, either reducing carry, vol fund, options desk.
Some short liquidations have been passed through the engine we could expect more fairly soon pic.twitter.com/MQ9xEdSRks
— TheKingfisher (@kingfisher_btc) September 26, 2022
What A Green Monthly Close Could Imply For Bitcoin
Additional data from the team behind Material Indicators claims that Bitcoin has two critical resistance levels if bulls score a green close above $20,000. These levels sit at around $20,100 and $39,000.
Although Bitcoin is unlikely to reach the latter levels, due to the current macroeconomic conditions, the cryptocurrency might reclaim the high of $20,000. In support of this thesis, Material Indicators noted a spike in activity from investors with bid orders of $100,000 and investors with bid orders of $10,000.
The activity from these investors was able to “offset the week’s sell pressure with $117 million in market buys”. If this buying pressure sustains, the crypto market might see some green after two weeks of trending in the red.
Investors with buying orders from $10,000 to $100,000 (red and purple on the chart), increase buying pressure on short timeframes. Source: Material Indicators
However, the mid-term still points to more pain, according to Material Indicators:
There are short term signs of a potential pump, but the crossing of key moving averages suggests the broader trend will continue down. Resist the urge to overtrade or FOMO in.