The Bitcoin price has seen a significant increase of more than 4% within the last 24 hours. The price has risen to $36,800. Several key factors have contributed to this rally.
#1 Spot Bitcoin ETF Buzz
The surge in BTC’s price can be attributed to renewed speculations about the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Yesterday, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart put out a new note, highlighting that the SEC is in a unique position within the next eight days where they could approve all 12 spot ETF applications, as Bitcoinist reported.
Seyffart further pointed out that the SEC has the opportunity to approve 9 applications (excluding Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF) at any point until January 10, 2024. Bloomberg’s Seyffart and Eric Balchunas still estimate a 90% chance of approval for at least some of the pending applications before January 10, 2024.
The ETF buzz was further fueled by news that Grayscale is in active discussions with the SEC regarding the conversion of its GBTC trust into a spot ETF. Grayscale’s recent court victory over the SEC on August 29 has added to the anticipation.
#2 Bitcoin Whales
There has been a notable increase in activities by Bitcoin whales, which can be interpreted as a sign of market optimism. Crypto analyst MartyParty pointed out a pattern of substantial purchases, with a whale reportedly buying $15 million of BTC every three hours, suggesting anticipation of positive developments in the ETF front.
Keith Alan from Firecharts observed that Bitcoin whales are actively shifting liquidity in the market, with noticeable changes in bid levels. He stated, “FireCarts shows BTC whales continuing to move liquidity around the order book. Bids that were moved down to $34k earlier have now returned to the $34.5k level.”
Additionally, an increase in TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) buying on Coinbase has been reported. Crypto analyst Exitpump noted, “BTC Spot Delta: Someone on Coinbase twapping / market buying.” TWAP buying is a trading strategy used by big players to execute large orders in a way that aims to minimize price impact and achieve an average execution price close to the market average over a specified time period.
#3 Short Squeeze
The Bitcoin market has also experienced a significant short squeeze, with approximately $51 million in BTC short positions being liquidated today (according to Coinglass data, as of press time). This amount marks the largest short squeeze since October 23 and 24, when $161 million and $68.5 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated on consecutive days, leading to a substantial price increase of more than 18%. Today’s short squeeze certainly caught some traders on the wrong foot who believed that $36,000 – the previous range high – was a “safe” short trade.
#4 Bitcoin Supply Dynamics
The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has been steadily decreasing, reaching a six-year low at the end of October. Daan Crypto Trades, a noted crypto trader, highlighted the downward trend in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. He remarked:
Bitcoin Exchange inflows have been trending down on the higher timeframe. Compared to for 2021-2022 there’s a clear trend down in BTC inflows to exchanges. Would expect that to start ticking back up once the bull market really gets going and people start taking profits.
Furthermore, on-chain data reveals that a significant 76% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by long-term holders, who haven’t moved their coins for over 155 days. Analyst Dylan LeClair emphasized the strength of hodlers, noting that a staggering 88.5% of the supply has remained static over the last three months.
“The hilarious thing is that 88.5% of the Bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in the last three months. Wall Street is gonna have to really pump this thing to get hodlers to part with their coins,” LeClair stated.
At press time, BTC traded at $36,585.